History has shown that groupthink and market enthusiasm fuel every financial bubble—from the South Sea Bubble to the Dot-Com Crash and beyond. Instead of chasing narratives, fiduciaries must test assumptions with rigorous statistical analysis, historical valuation studies, and probability-based risk assessment.
Stock prices do not move randomly. Instead, they follow patterns driven by financial conditions that can be measured, rated, and acted upon. At Equity Risk Sciences, we use rigorous statistical models to identify high-probability investment opportunities and help investors avoid hidden risks.
Bacon laid the groundwork for systematic analysis. Graham introduced discipline to investing. Simons perfected empirical, AI-driven strategies. Today, advisors must follow in their footsteps by adopting data science, statistical modeling, and AI-driven decision-making.
Investors believe they make rational decisions, yet markets are driven by emotion and speculation. Francis Bacon identified The Four Idols—cognitive traps that distort reasoning. These biases mislead investors and impact decision-making.
This model provides professional advisors with a structured framework to assess the feasibility of achieving targeted investment returns based on revenue growth assumptions, valuation multiples, and profitability expectations. Below is an interpretation of the data and how an advisor can use this technology to improve decision-making.
These charts tell a heck of a story about Equity Risk Sciences and the market in general. Our system at Equity Risk Sciences dates back to the 80s. We rate over 15,000 companies on every trading day for over 35 years.
Net Present Value (NPV) is one of the most important tools for evaluating whether a stock is overvalued, undervalued, or fairly priced. It helps investors determine whether they are buying a stock with a high probability of profit—or one that is overpriced and likely to decline.
On 12/12/2024, MANH closed at $309.78. On that date, ERS’s V1™ rating was 100, the PRI™ was 99, and the FRR™ was 94. ERS’s eValuation™ rating was -142. Manhattan Associates closed today at $222.84. It fell 28.1% on the past 48 days.
Today, JetBlue (JBLU)’s stock price fell -25%. We’re using JetBlue as an example of the accuracy and value of ERS’s proprietary risk and performance ratings to RIAs, fiduciaries and institutional investors.
This report aims to provide an in-depth analysis of NVIDIA's (NVDA) current market valuation, comparing its financial outlook with historical data and market trends. The purpose is to educate optimistic investors about the fundamental principles of investing, grounded in rationality, historical context, and financial data.