These charts tell a heck of a story about Equity Risk Sciences and the market in general. Our system at Equity Risk Sciences dates back to the 80s. We rate over 15,000 companies on every trading day for over 35 years.

By Raymond M. Mullaney, CEO
January 31, 2025

When an investor is considering trusting an advisor who says, “I like XYZ stock”, it would be prudent if the investor would ask the advisor, “You like XYZ stock today. What did you say about it on 4/19/2022? What did you say about it on 8/4/2019? What did you say on 7/17/2011?” Pick random days and ask your advisor what rating he gave the stock on that day. This is how you know if the advisor is serious: they keep track of their wins and losses, and the magnitude of profit and loss from each of their recommendations.

ERS’s technology allows a user to identify what rating we gave every stock over the last 40 years that every stock that we had data for. You can see in the case of DECK, which is down 20% today, that our PRI™ rating on it was a very risky 89, and our FRR™ rating was a high-risk 76.

When an advisor tells you to buy something, you should be asking the questions: “How much do you expect it to appreciate? And what evidence do you have that it will appreciate that much?”. Then you should ask the probability of it falling 10%, 20%, 40% or 80%. Ask for a statistical analysis of how he drew his conclusions. If he just says, “I think it’s going up because I like it,” I think you can find a more sophisticated advisor than that type. And if he says, “This stock can’t go down; everybody on Wall Street likes it,” you should get him some hay and consider him a sheep. Then take your money elsewhere.

ERS is in the business of helping advisors use science for the benefit of their clients. With science, we can help advisors reduce, avoid and prevent losses. As our example of DECK shows, ERS knows how to identify companies which are safe to buy, and which the data indicates have a high statistical probability of rising significantly.

You can also see the first date we rated it most highly for fiduciaries to buy it was 12/2/1999, when the stock was $0.16. The chart you’re looking at shows what a $10,000 investment in DECK would have grown to from 12/2/99 to 1/30/25, and what an equivalent investment in Apple on 12/2/99 would have grown to. $10,000 invested in Apple became $2.9 million, a very successful investment. But $10,000 invested in Deckers became $13.7 million.

You might wonder why you never heard of DECK before. There are 15,000 stocks we cover; DECK is just one of them We have hundreds of examples. What’s perhaps most notable is our technology identified that DECK, although small, was still suitable for a fiduciary to invest in, because its financial condition and its trends were so demonstrably positive.

When DECK was rated on 12/2/99, it had a profoundly low PRI™ rating of 2 and an even lower FRR™ rating of 1. Our analysis indicated it was extremely responsible for fiduciaries to buy it, even though it was a low-priced stock. An advisor might say “I wouldn’t have bothered with buying a stock like that with a $27 million market cap,” but he would have missed the opportunity of his life when DECK grew almost 5 times more than Apple from 12/2/99 to 1/30/25.

Many advisors say they would not have bought a penny stock like DECK in 1999. Well, there was another opportunity to buy DECK when it had very safe risk ratings on 3/19/20. On 3/19/20, advisors could have bought Apple, one of the most-held stocks at the time with a market cap over $1 trillion. Alternatively, they could have bought DECK, which had a respectable market cap of $2.9 billion. It was no longer a penny stock, having grown 100-fold from 1999.

On 3/19/20, our data said DECK was still highly suitable for fiduciaries. Its PRI™ rating was a low-risk 20, and its FRI™ had improved from a medium 34 to a low-risk 11, identifying it as an extremely safe, well-conditioned company. And the bottom line for fiduciaries was that DECK had an FRR™ rating of 15, which was a very favorable rating.

Had you invested in Apple on that day, $10,000 became $39,950. But if you had invested in DECK on that day, $10,000 became $129,000. You made more than three times more than Apple by buying DECK, which was highly rated at that time.

40-Year Study,
1-Year Hold

(1/31/85 to 1/31/25)

V1™ # of Days Avg
1-Yr Return
Prob. Of Gain
A+ 25 50.2% 100%
A 1405 2.9% 49%
B 2252 43.1% 69%
C 2955 44.4% 72%
D 909 66.3% 49%
E 0 0%
F 85 -28.1% 0%
Total 7631 38.2% 63%

40-Year Study,
5-Year Hold

(1/31/85 to 1/31/25)

V1™ # of Days Avg
5-Yr Return
Prob. Of Gain
A+ 25 1267.5% 100%
A 1405 400.7% 56%
B 2182 234.7% 85%
C 2163 513.2% 75%
D 765 485.1% 88%
E 0 0%
F 85 -87.7% 0%
Total 6625 389.5% 75%

40-Year Study,
10-Year Hold

(1/31/85 to 1/31/25)

V1™ # of Days Avg
1-Yr Return
Prob. Of Gain
A+ 25 3432.5% 100%
A 1385 2704.1% 100%
B 1506 581.6% 100%
C 1596 1027.7% 100%
D 765 971.6% 100%
E 0 0%
F 85 -0.7% 46%
Total 5362 1322.3% 99%

On March 19, 2020, Apple’s Price Risk Indicator™ (PRI™) was 90—a high risk rating. Now, just because a stock is risky doesn’t mean it won’t go up, but if it has low risk, you can have confidence that it will statistically probably go up. And when it’s suitable for a fiduciary, that’s even better. You can sleep at night knowing that if the economy goes into a depression, your investments are positioned wisely.

On that day, DECK’s Fiduciary Risk Rating™ (FRR™) was 15, whereas Apple’s was 45. We weren’t saying Apple would go out of business—not at all. However, when comparing these two companies, we would have clearly identified for advisors that the one with greater opportunity was a $3 billion company called Deckers, not the trillion-dollar giant named Apple.

How many companies go up tenfold from a trillion-dollar market cap? So far, zero. But plenty of companies with a $3 billion valuation have grown to $30 billion. Therefore, the action that makes the most sense is to buy the one with greater opportunity and lower risk. That’s exactly what our system would have informed you.

We are incredibly proud of our technology. We have hundreds of examples just like this. While we are still a little-known company, you can invest in us now. If you are a fiduciary, a registered Series 65 or 7 professional, you have the opportunity to buy stock in our company before we go public.

Give me a call—we would love to show you how our proprietary data science and artificial intelligence can help you thrive, succeed, and grow fabulously.