| S&P 500 | 50 Best-Rated Stocks |
50 Worst-Rated Stocks |
|
| Average 1-Year Return | 9.0% | 14.6% | 4.2% |
| # of Periods | 298 | 298 | 298 |
| # of Gains | 229 | 225 | 169 |
| # of Losses | 69 | 73 | 129 |
| Probability of 1-Yr Gain | 77% | 76% | 57% |
| Average 1-Year Gain | 16.4% | 24.0% | 22.2% |
| Average 1-Year Loss | -15.3% | -14.2% | -19.4% |
| # Times S&P 500 Fell | 69 | 69 | 69 |
| Average Return When S&P Fell | -15.3% | -3.5% | -27.8% |
| # Times S&P 500 Rose | 229 | 229 | 229 |
| Average Return When S&P Rose | 16.4% | 20.1% | 13.8% |
Objective: Employ a longitudinal study consisting of 298 one-year periods over 25 years to determine the performance results of using ERS’s Predictive Analytics technology compared to the performance of the S&P 500 index in the same periods.
Study Period: 298 one-year periods: 12/1998 through 9/2023, monthly
Sample: 1,500 largest companies by market cap in each period
- Minimum market cap of $250 million
- Minimum stock price $1.00
Study Method:
- ERS assigned each company a Valuation rating at the beginning of each period.
- Grouped companies into portfolios based on their Valuation ratings in each period
- Selected the best 50 or best 30 companies in each period by their Valuation ratings
- Each period has its own set of 50 or 30 stocks – it’s not always the same 50 stocks across all periods
- Calculated each portfolio’s average return based on each company’s 1-year rate of return