The Best-Performing Stock From 7/5/24 to 12/2/24 Has Been Tesla.
Berkshire Hathaway is Up 15.7%. The Other 8 of the 10 Largest US Companies Fell -0.2%.
(9 of these 10 companies had very unfavorable ERS ratings,
while Berkshire Hathaway had a favorable ERS rating)
7/5/2024 to 12/2/2024 Study:
Analysis of ERS’s Ratings on 10 Mega-Cap Stocks in 2024
The cost (market cap) of the 10 largest companies in America on 7/5/2024 was $19.15 trillion.
Our data strongly indicated that the prices of most of these 10 companies would meaningfully decrease in the next 2 or more years.
| Company | Price 7/5/24 |
Market Cap 7/5/24 |
PRI™ 7/5/24 |
FRR™ 7/5/24 |
Price 12/2/24 |
Return to 12/2/24 |
| Alphabet | $190.60 | $2,349 | 86 | 61 | $171.49 | -10.0% |
| Amazon.com | $200.00 | $2,081 | 71 | 69 | $210.71 | +5.4% |
| Apple | $226.34 | $3,471 | 100 | 73 | $239.59 | +5.9% |
| Berkshire Hathaway | $618,545 | $889 | 33 | 17 | $715,880 | +15.7% |
| Broadcom | $170.33 | $793 | 100 | 100 | $166.51 | -2.2% |
| Eli Lilly | $914.57 | $823 | 90 | 100 | $799.80 | -12.5% |
| Meta Platforms | $539.91 | $1,370 | 92 | 74 | $592.83 | +9.8% |
| Microsoft | $467.56 | $3,475 | 100 | 89 | $430.98 | -7.8% |
| NVIDIA | $125.83 | $3,095 | 98 | 94 | $138.63 | +10.2% |
| Tesla | $251.52 | $804 | 90 | 88 | $357.09 | +42.0% |
| Total: | $19,149 | 92 | 84 | Average: | +5.6% | |
| S&P 500 | 5,567.19 | 6,047.15 | +8.6% | |||
| NASDAQ | 18,352.76 | 19,403.95 | +5.7% |
Market cap amounts in billions
ERS Ratings and Price Changes of the 9 Mega-Cap Stocks
With 46 Alternatives and 849 Other Alternatives
(Note the very significant ERS Ratings differences between the best 100 and the worst 100 companies)
From 7/5/24 to 12/2/24, the 10 largest companies rose an average of 5.6%.
The 9 companies with PRI™ ratings over 70 rose an average of 4.5%,
while the 1 company with a PRI™ rating under 35 gained 15.7%.
Companies with PRI™ Ratings Over 70
| Company | Price 7/5/24 |
PRI™ 7/5/24 |
FRR™ 7/5/24 |
Price 12/2/24 |
Price Change |
| Alphabet | $190.60 | 86 | 63 | $171.49 | -10.0% |
| Amazon.com | $200.00 | 71 | 69 | $210.71 | +5.4% |
| Apple | $226.34 | 100 | 75 | $239.59 | +5.9% |
| Broadcom | $170.33 | 100 | 100 | $166.51 | -2.2% |
| Eli Lilly | $914.57 | 90 | 100 | $799.80 | -12.5% |
| Meta Platforms | $539.91 | 92 | 78 | $592.83 | +9.8% |
| Microsoft | $467.56 | 100 | 89 | $430.98 | -7.8% |
| NVIDIA | $125.83 | 98 | 94 | $138.63 | +10.2% |
| Tesla | $251.52 | 90 | 89 | $357.09 | +42.0% |
| Average | 92 | 84 | +4.5% | ||
| S&P 500 | +8.6% |
Companies with PRI™ Ratings Under 35
| Company | Price 7/5/24 |
PRI™ 7/5/24 |
FRR™ 7/5/24 |
Price 12/2/24 |
Price Gain |
| Berkshire Hathaway | $618,545 | 33 | 17 | $715,880 | +15.7% |
| S&P 500 | +8.6% |
46 Alternative Companies
On 7/5/24, ERS identified 46 very favorably rated companies,
each with a market cap over $1 billion and an FRR™ under 10.
| Group | PRI™ Rating |
FRR™ Rating |
Price Change |
| 46 Alternative Companies | Average: 16 | Average: 7 | +12.3% |
| S&P 500 | +8.6% |
849 Alternative Companies
On 7/5/24, ERS identified 849 alternative companies with positive net income
and total market value equal to the total market value of the 10 mega-caps.
| Group | PRI™ Rating |
FRR™ Rating |
Price Change |
| 849 Alternative Companies | Average: 48 | Average: 41 | +18.9% |
| S&P 500 | +8.6% |
90 of the 849 Alternative Companies
The 10 Largest From Each Sector, Except Basic Materials & Real Estate
| Total Market Cap |
Total Revenue |
Total Net Income |
||||||
| Communication Services |
AT&T Inc | Charter Comms | Comcast | Fox | Interpublic Group | $777 billion |
$564 billion |
$60 billion |
| Match Group | Omnicom Group | Sirius XM | T-Mobile US | Verizon | ||||
| Consumer Cyclical |
Airbnb | Booking Holdings | Home Depot | Lowe’s Companies | Marriott Int’l | $1,320 billion |
$478 billion |
$60 billion |
| McDonald’s | Nike | O’Reilly Auto | Starbucks | TJX Companies | ||||
| Consumer Defensive |
Altria Group | Coca-Cola | Constellation Brands | Keurig Dr Pepper | Kimberly-Clark | $1,424 billion |
$466 billion |
$66 billion |
| Mondelez Int’l | PepsiCo | Philip Morris Int’l | Procter & Gamble | Target | ||||
| Energy | Chevron | ConocoPhillips | Energy Transfer LP | Enterprise Products | EOG Resources | $1,351 billion |
$1,094 billion |
$103 billion |
| Exxon Mobil | Marathon Petroleum | Occidental Petro. | Phillips 66 | Schlumberger | ||||
| Financial Services |
American Express | Bank of America | Berkshire Hathaway | BlackRock | Citigroup | $2,845 billion |
$1,075 billion |
$215 billion |
| Goldman Sachs | JPMorgan | Morgan Stanley | Progressive | Wells Fargo | ||||
| Healthcare | Cencora | Centene | Cigna Group | CVS Health | Elevance Health | $959 billion |
$1,759 billion |
$72 billion |
| HCA Healthcare | Humana | IQVIA Holdings | Johnson & Johnson | McKesson | ||||
| Industrials | Caterpillar | CSX Corp | Deere & Co | FedEx | General Dynamics | $1,046 billion |
$506 billion |
$60 billion |
| Honeywell Int’l | Illinois Tool Works | Lockheed Martin | Union Pacific | UPS | ||||
| Technology | Applied Materials | Auto. Data Process. | Cisco Systems | Cognizant Tech. | Fiserv | $1,124 billion |
$304 billion |
$52 billion |
| HP Inc | IBM Corp | Microchip Tech. | Paychex | Qualcomm | ||||
| Utilities | American Electric | Constellation Energy | Dominion Energy | Duke Energy | Exelon | $630 billion |
$210 billion |
$31 billion |
| NextEra Energy | PG&E | Public Service Enter. | Sempra | Southern Co | ||||
| Total | $11.5 trillion | $6.5 trillion | $718 billion |
Market Cap to Revenue of the Largest 10 Companies, 9/30/1994 to 9/30/2024
Sample: 10 largest companies by market cap on each end-of-month date, excluding companies without market cap, revenue, liabilities or tangible equity data.
- 349 one-year periods
- 325 three-year periods
- 301 five-year periods
Market Cap of the Largest 10 Companies to US GDP, 9/30/1994 to 9/30/2024
Sample: 10 largest companies by market cap on each end-of-month date, excluding companies without market cap, revenue, liabilities or tangible equity data.
- 349 one-year periods
- 325 three-year periods
- 301 five-year periods
Reference
Price is the amount you pay for a stock. The actual price is the market capitalization of the company. Prices fluctuate tremendously due to the emotions of investors. These emotions determine supply and demand and thus prices in the short run.
Value is the intrinsic economic worth of a company. There are many ways to value a company. Prudent investors develop conservative and reliable estimates of the minimum value of every company they invest in before they invest in it. A company’s stock price often rises and falls significantly, but its value rarely changes meaningfully in short periods. Its price moves strictly on the basis of its perceived value, not its actual value. There is a difference. Not knowing this difference will cost you your savings. Most often, the price of a stock is very significantly higher than its minimum value. Rarely does a stock’s price decline and remain significantly below its minimum value. When it does, typically it is acquired at higher prices.
Risk of Loss: Before investing, prudent investors assess the potential maximum loss they may suffer as a shareholder.
Risk is the difference between the current price of a stock and the price it may fall to if:
A.Their revenues or earnings fall even somewhat more than the market expects
B.New unknown competitors enter the marketplace and capture greater market share
C.The economy or the stock market takes an unexpected turn for the worse
There are dozens of additional reasons why a stock’s price may fall. Many of these risks can be identified and quantified, but not all. This makes investing very risky. Long-term investing success is dependent upon avoiding stocks whose prices have a higher statistical probability of falling meaningfully than their probability of rising meaningfully. Data scientists produce objective studies to measure and rate the statistical probability and magnitude of future stock price changes. Measuring whether a stock has a greater statistical probability of rising than falling is the work of data scientists.